AUSTIN (KXAN) — 9 months after the winter storm, many Key Texans are all the same dealing with the emotional aftermath.

"I don't fifty-fifty think I tin can turn on the fireplace," says Georgetown resident Elizabeth Stratton. "I'thousand like, pretty traumatized by how long nosotros sat in that location for and how cold we were."

Elizabeth endured the February 2021 wintertime tempest with her eight-month-old son. Her husband Owen was deployed abroad.

Elizabeth Stratton and her son bundled up outside their home.
Elizabeth Stratton struggled to go along her baby warm during the winter storm. (Courtesy Elizabeth Stratton)

As the temperature inside her domicile dropped to 38°, Elizabeth had to figure out how to go along her baby warm and fed.

"All the nutrient is going bad in the refrigerator," Stratton said. "My breast milk, that took me forever to pump considering I wasn't supplying enough, was going to be ruined."

The female parent and child spent hours sitting on the bathroom floor, keeping warm using the mist from her running shower.

"I could tell he was really cold, too," Stratton said. "It was just hard. Actually hard, emotionally."

"You've got to kind of keep it together, considering yous're a mom," Stratton said. "I am so scared nosotros are going to have something like that happen over again."

Will we have another wintertime storm this season?

New winter outlooks issued Nov. 18 by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center predict a warmer and drier-than-normal wintertime in Central Texas.

El Nino and La Nina patterns fluctuate since 1990
The Oceanic Niño index tracks the El Niño and La Niña patterns over the by thirty years. (KXAN Graphic)

The master reason for these predictions is the La Niña pattern present in the Pacific Bounding main, with libation-than-normal h2o close to the Equator. But, this same La Niña pattern was in place last winter when we had the historic February winter storm.

So, what are the odds of an farthermost freeze happening once more this winter?

Did La Niña crusade the February 2021 Winter Storm?

Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon is the State Climatologist for Texas and an expert on how the El Niño/La Niña bicycle affects Texas atmospheric condition.

The jet stream is a strong wind current that circles the Northern Hemisphere and keeps frigid air near the north pole.
The jet stream is a stiff current of air electric current that circles the Northern Hemisphere and keeps frigid air near the northward pole. (KXAN Graphic)

"La Niña is basically the opposite of El Niño," Dr. Nielsen-Gammon said. "El Niño is when the temperatures in the tropical Pacific become unusually warm. La Niña, they go unusually cold."

The colder sea h2o in the Eastern Pacific drives the winter storm rails north.

"With the jet stream farther north, we tend to take fewer storms," Dr. Nielsen-Gammon said. "And then we go less precipitation, fewer common cold fronts, temperatures tend to exist warmer on boilerplate."

So how did Central Texas go a historic cold blast and snowstorm during a La Niña winter?

Dr. Nielsen-Gammon says the intrusion of Arctic air directly from the North Pole was caused by a "sudden stratospheric warming consequence," which is completely unrelated to La Niña.

"The polar vortex that normally sits over the pole gets disrupted, breaks into two pieces," Dr. Nielsen-Gammon said. "And, when that happens, it sort of throws off the atmospheric condition around the hemisphere. And, some identify or another is going to get something unusual — can't really tell who it is going to be. This time, information technology turned out to be us."

The "double-dip" La Niña and winter weather

2021/2022 has a double-dip La Nina
KXAN predicted the 2021/2022 "double-dip" La Niña earlier this year (KXAN Graphic)

What's different most this winter is that it is our 2nd-consecutive La Niña winter. There was a moderate La Niña pattern in place last winter, it weakened over the summertime, simply now information technology's intensifying again. This "double dip" La Niña is something we first warned yous may happen before this year.

Our analysis found during the second dip of La Niña, Primal Texas winter weather is:

  • 0.93°F warmer
  • Brings 1.8" less snow
  • Features vi fewer freezes

…than during the first La Niña winter.

We besides found the second consecutive La Niña winter is:

  • 1.23°F warmer
  • Brings 0.18" less snowfall
  • Features ii fewer freezes

…than an average wintertime, regardless of El Niño/La Niña condition.

A second La Niña is usually warmer and drier than the first La Niña and a typical Central Texas winter. (KXAN Graphic)
A second La Niña is usually warmer and drier than the starting time La Niña and a typical Central Texas winter. (KXAN Graphic)

Note: This tendency is robust even when the abnormally cold and snowy Feb 2021 is removed from the "first La Niña" dataset. Scroll to the bottom of the story to see the full data and which winters were analyzed.

Does this mean nosotros might not accept some other winter storm?

This is all to say that a massive wintertime storm is less likely to happen this winter.

"Historically, the trend nosotros've seen for extreme temperatures in Texas in the winter is they've gotten quite a bit warmer," Dr. Nielsen-Gammon said. "The common cold air outbreak we had concluding year was really an exception. And, as about as we can tell, that trend volition continue, then that hopefully what we had terminal year will remain exceptional."

As Dr. Nielsen-Gammon mentions, the coming La Niña wintertime is happening against the background of a warming climate. And even though climate change is leading to warmer winters overall, new research shows that climate change tin actually make the occasional, farthermost cold snap happen more than often in the United states of america.

Stratton reflects back to those brutally cold Feb days and says she tin inappreciably believe what she and and so many others had to get through.

"It took me awhile to get back to feeling like I could become home, and it's OK to go domicile, and we're going to have heat. We're going to have electrical," she said. "I will never take that stuff for granted every again."

La Niña wintertime data assay — How we crunched the numbers

The First Alert Weather squad analyzed Austin/Camp Mabry weather during double-dip La Niña events dating back to the 1990s, separating the kickoff and 2d-consecutive La Niña winters to run into if the resulting local weather are unlike.

An average winter at Camp Mabry (1991-2020) brings December highs and lows of 63.9/43.4 degrees, January highs and lows of 62.v/41.8 degrees, and February highs and lows of 66.5/45.8 degrees.

December averages two.72″ of rainfall, January averages 2.64″, and February typically brings 1.89″ of rain. Twenty percent of our annual rainfall falls in the winter months — our driest season of the four.

Austin/Camp Mabry typically records 0.two″ of snowfall per winter, and sees 12 nights of freezing temperatures.

Here are the trends of the double-dip La Niñas:

  • Winter '95/'96 and '96/'97 — Moderate La Niña followed by weak La Niña
  • Winter '98/'99 and '99/'00 — Strong La Niña followed by strong La Niña
  • Wintertime '07/'08 and '08/'09 — Potent La Niña followed by weak/moderate La Niña
  • Wintertime '10/'xi and '11/'12 — Strong La Niña followed past moderate La Niña
  • Winter '20/'21 — Moderate/strong La Niña, predicted to lead into a weak/moderate La Niña this winter

Below, explore the information we analyzed:

First La Niña Dip Data

Time menstruation Temp. Precip. Snow Freezes
Dec '95 1.3 -2.21 0 iv
Jan '96 -one.7 -2.58 0 x
Feb '96 1.half-dozen -1.27 0.3 5
Overall 0.4° (warmer) -half-dozen.06″ (drier) 0.3″ 19
Dec '98 -0.eight -1.xvi Trace 6
Jan '99 three.3 -2.44 NA 6
Feb '99 half-dozen.two -i.86 NA 0
Overall 2.9° (warmer) -v.46″ (drier) Trace 12
Dec '07 one.1 -2.05 0 6
Jan '08 -1.8 -ane.82 0 6
Feb '08 3.3 -1.38 0 2
Overall 0.867° (warmer) -5.25″ (drier) 0" 14
December '10 0.6 -1.93 0 iv
Jan 'xi -2.five 0.28 0 6
Feb '11 -1 -i.41 0.nine 9
Overall -0.967° (libation) -3.06″ (drier) 0.9" 19
Dec '20 1.three one.35 0 2
January '21 i.4 -1.01 1.v 4
February '21 (winter storm) -7.8 0.02 6.4 10
Overall -1.vii° (cooler) 0.36″ (wetter) 7.9" 16

Overall first La Niña winter averages

Temp. Precip . Snowfall Freezes
0.iii° (warmer) -3.894″ (drier) 1.82″ 16

Excluding abnormally cold/snowy Feb. '21

Temp. Precip. Snow Freezes
0.91° (warmer) -3.932″ (drier) 0.54″ xiv

Second La Niña Dip Data

Fourth dimension Period Temp. Precip. Snow Freezes
December '96 1.3 -0.53 T 6
Jan '97 -3.4 -1.57 T 12
Feb '97 -3.i ii.05 NA 0
Overall -1.73° (libation) -0.05″ (drier) Trace 18
Dec '99 2 -1.57 NA ane
Jan '00 iii.i 0.21 NA v
Feb '00 6 -0.xiv NA 0
Overall 3.7° (warmer) -1.5″ (drier) North/A 6
Dec '08 -0.1 -2.32 0.one iv
Jan '09 i.3 -1.9 0 6
Feb '09 4.8 -0.42 0 one
Overall ii° (warmer) -4.64″ (drier) 0.1″ 11
Dec '11 -ane.four ii.21 0 3
Jan '12 2.9 2.06 Trace 3
Feb '12 ane.3 1.15 Trace 1
Overall 0.933° (warmer) v.42″ (wetter) Trace 7

Overall 2nd La Niña winter averages

Temp . Precip . Snow Freezes
1.225 deg warmer -0.193″ (drier) 0.025″ 10.five

Overall, the second-consecutive La Niña wintertime is warmer, features fewer freezes and less snowfall than the showtime La Niña winter. The 2d-sequent La Niña wintertime is as well warmer, features fewer freezes and less snowfall than an average Central Texas winter in general, regardless of La Niña status.

Even when February 2021'southward abnormally snowy and cold conditions is removed, this analysis still holds upwards.

Digital Managing director Kate Winkle contributed to this report.